Published on: 18/04/2017 01:39 PMReported by: roving-eye
Veteran Southport journalist Martin Hovden writes:
"My predictions for the general election?
"The Tories to increase their majority at national level.
"Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to stand down soon after the result is announced.
"In Southport, the Liberal Democrats to narrowly retain the seat. However, will current MP John Pugh - now in his late 60s - want to stand? If he decides to retire, watch out for a battle royale between Southport Councillors Sue McGuire and Tony Dawson to be the Lib Dem candidate.
"One real threat to the Lib Dems winning in Southport is what happens to the UKIP vote in the town.
"In 2015 John Pugh's majority dropped to just 1,300 (from 6,000), with the Tories in second place. If voters feel there is no need to vote UKIP as we are leaving Europe anyway- what happens to the 7,400 votes won by UKIP's Terry Durrance? They are more likely to vote Conservative than for any other party.
"Are we on course for a Tory victory in Southport?
"Interesting. Let the battle begin!"
Submit News to Us
Cllr Dawson as our next MP.....ha! Suppose it may at least may look on John Pughs time more fondly.
The issue really though is finding a good opposition candidate on time, the last Tory one didn't do so bad considering how invisible he was early on. It would be good to see change as Dr Pugh has been our MP for southport for 16 years now first under the banner of "driving southport forward" and then "fighting for southport" neither of which have been campaigns of note. I'm sure he's a nice man but really hasn't delivered anything more than empty sound bites and a bill to oppose Sainsbury's in his tenure which is a big shame given the reward and opportunity given...albeit a generous pension will maybe soften the blow
The Libs of course will play usual suit of:
1) it's always someone else's fault
2) will do anything to get elected even if forgetting about things done in the coalition they like to cherry pick their moments from
3) life will be rosy with the magic money tree
It will be interesting seeing who's put forward for this seat, especially given it may be short lived given the boundary review.
Not so short-lived as the Boundary Commission's report recommends that the Southport constituency is expanded to include some of South Ribble's wards.
Originally Posted by Username2016
Agree, however "may" was my key word here. There's less seats up for grabs and what works for a southport electorate in current guise may not work for the next round of electorate. Its definitely time for change though as our current MP has had long enough to demonstrate ability, as for Cllr Dawson, would anyone really want him having any real power?
Originally Posted by clive764
The Libs majority was slashed at the last election by 18% with a majority of just 1332.
It was Johns last term I was told when I was on a visit to parliament last year so if he stands he either does another 5 years or retires 3 years early.
I am a life long Lib Dem voter. I voted to Leave in the Referendum. Each to their own, but democratically the Leave the EU lot won. As the Lib Dems can't accept the democratic result (We accept the result, but want another referendum because your all thick and voted the wrong way.) I will vote against Lib Dems and encourage my family & friends to do likewise. Democracy in action.
Even more interesting in that it has been reported tonight that the current Boundary Commission's report will not be put to Parliament, but that the Conservative manifesto will put the report in abeyance as Mrs May doesn't like the recommended reduction in seats from 650 to 600, and may instigate another Boundary review after the election to come into effect in 2022.
Originally Posted by Username2016
The Tories just need to sort out a good candidate for Southport and a strategy to deliver the modest votes needed to win the seat. Always been beyond them on previous occasions though.
We shall see whether the Southport Electorate seek revenge on Mr Pugh (if he stands) following his decision not to follow the decision of Southport to get out of the EU. It's officially confirmed by the ONS that Southport voted for "Out"!
So will the election's primary focus be re-affirmation for Brexit?
Are you sure about that (i.e. where's a link to show it to be true)?
Originally Posted by Tallboy
It's just that:
1. An academic researcher previously said that Southport voted remain - this was based on the (publicly announced) Sefton result, which was remain, and the known demographics for Southport, Crosby etc and Bootle.
2. What on earth has it got to do with ONS anyway?
Last edited by prasnee; 19/04/2017 at 06:41 PM.
The MP isn't obliged to follow any such thing. He did, however, take an oath to act in the interests of the electorate. Brexit is a shambles. May has called a vote to ride the wave of popularity before the Brexit hits the fan properly.
Originally Posted by Tallboy
I do see that regardless of John Pughs stance on the referendum, he hasn't asked you to give back the £300 billion you cost the UK propping up the pound after the vote.
Surely Southports older population Demographics point to a large out vote ?
Originally Posted by prasnee
Although all these studies are at best educated guesses influenced by whoever makes or pays for the guess.
Dawson as MP does make me laugh though.
The tag line for an old TV show was:
"Remember that democracy is bad form of government, but all the others are much worse"
Personally, sad to see Pugh step down as he was a man of principle, not much of that in the Conservative party!
I shall vote Lib Dem and hope that they can stop the Tories from walking the UK into oblivion, which is why T. May has called the election now. Come 2019 we will all be worse off, and they this is a way where they can get two further years of power.
Meanwhile, the NHS suffers more cuts, social care cuts continue, public services suffer more cuts, school funding cuts, but hey, some grammar schools will be funded in Tory areas.
I'm a huge Corbyn fan but I will vote Lib Dem this year regardless of who the candidate is just to keep the Tories out. You can bet that there will be some heavy hitters visiting the town for the Tories and a strong candidate being named.
UKIP got over 7000 votes in 2015 so you can expect a good chuck of that to go to the Tories so I think Labour and Green voters need to swing behind the Lib Dems otherwise this town is going blue.
Supporting Local Business
Be Seen - Advertise on Qlocal
UK, Local Online News Community, Forums, Chats, For Sale, Classified, Offers, Vouchers, Events, Motors Sale, Property For Sale Rent, Jobs, Hotels, Taxi, Restaurants, Pubs, Clubs, Pictures, Sports, Charities, Lost Found