In defence of Johnson - sort of

[bensherman]

Data is available - from S Africa, different situation, but indicators can be used, it appears more transmissible, less hospitalisations, less need for oxygen etc. That is a starting point for the modeling, I suspect that the figures being bandied around are the worst possible but totally unrealistic but they serve a purpose to coerce the population into having the jab.

Not my take.
I think, despite the "libertarians" jumping to conclusions, the scientists are right to be cautious about conclusions from the South Africa epidemic. Not only is that population younger, but we need to remember the seasons, as in it's nearly summer there whereas we are going into our winter.

[Darkside]

This is how accurate SAGE's modelling has been throughout the pandemic. Why is anyone still listening to them?

https://data.spectator.co.uk/categor...pY4ysYzB65thdA

[bensherman]

It's modelling.
It sits on the original assumptions.
They are not predictions.

So if you ignore the people who though not perfect, know the most about it, who do you listen to?/.,

[Alikado]

This is how accurate SAGE's modelling has been throughout the pandemic. Why is anyone still listening to them?

https://data.spectator.co.uk/categor...pY4ysYzB65thdA

It is only modeling of scenarios not predictions, many models will have been done with different infection rates, R numbers, hospitalisations etc, what we keep hearing in the press is the Armageddon answer, it is of no use to anybody unless they are are looking for a headline to frighten people.

[bensherman]

There has to be some sort of basis for policy.

[Albion102]

The problem is that there is a balance to be had between the economy and minimising deaths from Covid-19. We all acknowledge that, we just all fall on different places on the curve in our "positions". The correct answer is different for different countries. New Zealand is a remote island that has virtually no soft imports or exports, and is very self sufficient in food and natural resources and has a low population density. Nobody needs to go there. NZ could just put up the shutters and experience a low covid death rate.

That is not the case in the UK or continental Europe.

The other thing to remember is that crashing the economy has it's own death rate problems - https://www.theguardian.com/politics...uk-ippr-report

[Hamble]

No one knows how Omicron is going to affect the Covid pandemic it could go either way.

If infections are high symptoms mild and deaths low Booster uptake high it could mean Omnicron increases antibodies which eventually would help in
halting the virus.

South Africa cases are going down now.

As long as people are vaccinated continue to do the basic mask/distance/wash hands it is at least some comfort for the unknown.

[bensherman]

This last two weeks has demonstrated something I argued first time around.

Which was that the opponents of lockdown argued about the economic cost; as though if there was no lockdown, there would be none.

But now you can see the economic cost of fast-moving infection...shops and restaurants emptying out, businesses hit by absence...at least in lockdown there is some order.

[duncet]

Data is available - from S Africa, different situation, but indicators can be used, it appears more transmissible, less hospitalisations, less need for oxygen etc. That is a starting point for the modeling, I suspect that the figures being bandied around are the worst possible but totally unrealistic but they serve a purpose to coerce the population into having the jab.

I think that this is exactly the case. Some scientists work on facts and others spend their well paid time on modeling. The former are telling us that the Omicron strain is more easily transmissible but produces extremely mild symptoms that generally last no longer than 24 hours. Of course the fearmongers of SAGE and the media don't like to accept that it is merely a mild inconvenience and prefer to say that its seriousness has not yet been proven. Why? If so many people have caught it, surely they should know how mild, or otherwise the strain is? Johnson, as always is a blustering jelly and because he desperately wants to be liked by everyone he sits on the fence and doesn't lean either way. I am afraid things can only get worse as more and more people succumb to the constant drip of propaganda and become convinced their lives are in danger. A further lockdown will be inevitable.

[silver fox]

I think that this is exactly the case. Some scientists work on facts and others spend their well paid time on modeling. The former are telling us that the Omicron strain is more easily transmissible but produces extremely mild symptoms that generally last no longer than 24 hours. Of course the fearmongers of SAGE and the media don't like to accept that it is merely a mild inconvenience and prefer to say that its seriousness has not yet been proven. Why? If so many people have caught it, surely they should know how mild, or otherwise the strain is? Johnson, as always is a blustering jelly and because he desperately wants to be liked by everyone he sits on the fence and doesn't lean either way. I am afraid things can only get worse as more and more people succumb to the constant drip of propaganda and become convinced their lives are in danger. A further lockdown will be inevitable.

The Omicron variant has resulted in hospitalisation and deaths, to date not as severe as previous variants, but of course we now have much more of the population vaccinated and some immunity from previous infections, it isn't easy to generalise, plus of course as long as we have the total idiots who think all precautions are fear tactics and refuse to help, then the damn thing will continue to spread and more importantly MUTATE into even more variants.

There have already been a number of variants identified, most of which have been less transmissible and/or less severe, that is just chance, as long as anti vaxxers/maskers continue the opportunity for mutations is higher.

Personally couldn't care less how many anti vaxxers contract covid, do care at the extra strain they can create for the NHS and of course spreading infection.

[Toodles McGinty]

The Omicron variant has resulted in hospitalisation and deaths, to date not as severe as previous variants, but of course we now have much more of the population vaccinated and some immunity from previous infections, it isn't easy to generalise, plus of course as long as we have the total idiots who think all precautions are fear tactics and refuse to help, then the damn thing will continue to spread and more importantly MUTATE into even more variants.

There have already been a number of variants identified, most of which have been less transmissible and/or less severe, that is just chance, as long as anti vaxxers/maskers continue the opportunity for mutations is higher.

Personally couldn't care less how many anti vaxxers contract covid, do care at the extra strain they can create for the NHS and of course spreading infection.

They locked Typhoid Mary up.

I'd do the same with this lot. They are spreading disease, which as you say, could mutate into a variation that is immune to our vaccines.

That's a potential death sentence to some, if not eventually all of us.

The longer this progresses, the more anti-anti-vaxxers I'm becoming.

Get jabbed, open the technology to the entire world, support third world nations, and vaccinate this into submission. We did it with other diseases.

[local]

Personally I think we are heading for better times and the virus is losing its potency.

[Hamble]

Personally I think we are heading for better times and the virus is losing its potency.

I really hope that will happen.

[Toodles McGinty]

The former are telling us that the Omicron strain is more easily transmissible but produces extremely mild symptoms that generally last no longer than 24 hours.

Source, please?

You might have a disease that kills less but is much more transmissible, that's true.

So if 1% of 100000 people end up in hospital with Delta, that is 1000 patients. If 0.5% of 500000 people are hospitalised with Omicron, that is 2500 patients.

Even if hospitalisation ratios are lower, the high percentage of infections cancel that out.

It would be lovely to live in a La-la-land where it is nothing more dangerous than a common cold, but variations are coming thick and fast among unvaccinated. Until we're all vaccinated, it will keep coming back time after time.

[Hamble]

London has the highest proportion of NHS staff yet to be vaccinated against the coronavirus in England, data has shown.

A total of 12.3% (25,393) of staff in Greater London were unvaccinated against Covid-19 as of October 31, 2021, figures from the NHS Electronic Staff Record have revealed.


https://www.londonworld.com/health/c...reveal-3453952


Hopefully this figure will be a lot less now as London has the highest Omicron rate.