Following the Science?

[Alikado]

Quote
"Governments everywhere want to force the R number down from about three (the R number if we took no action) to below one.".................

....The rate at which coronavirus infection is falling in the UK - as measured by the R number - has continued to level off.

The latest R estimate from the government's scientific advisory group Sage, is between 0.7 and 0.9, up slightly from the week before.

It means that, on average, every 10 people with Covid will infect between seven and nine other people.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52473523

There is a vast difference between 0.7 & 0.9 and 3.0, the rate has barely EVER reached half way to that, talking about 3.0 sustained for what amounts to a good couple of months is scaremongering.

[Hamble]

There is a vast difference between 0.7 & 0.9 and 3.0, the rate has barely EVER reached half way to that, talking about 3.0 sustained for what amounts to a good couple of months is scaremongering.

"Lockdown restrictions imposed in March were initially eased in England on 13 May, when people were allowed to spend more time outdoors.

On 15 May, the reproduction number - indicating how many people are infected, on average, by someone with the virus - was estimated to be between 0.7 and 1.

In March, the R number was estimated to be as high as 4."



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53414363

[said]

It means

Quote
“This coronavirus is very, very infectious, so every person passes it to three.

“Now that doesn’t sound like much of a difference, but if each of those three passes it to three, and that happens at 10 layers, I have been responsible for infecting 59,000 people.”

These figures are calculated by raising 1.3 and three to the power of 10.

Dr Montgomery also warned against anyone being complacent and ignoring the government’s advice on social distancing.

“I’m not going to play it down,” he said. “It’s going to be ugly, it’s going to be horrible for a large number of people – but it will be a small number of people who get properly sick and a smaller percentage of those again that need to come to an intensive care unit and we can save the lives of a large number of those people too."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/h...-a9419146.html

Dr. Montgomery, University College of London - where that other guy got all the Covid figures so drastically wrong, has one of the most wonderful resumes I have ever read but nothing to do with viruses. As with the guy who got all his figures wrong, Montgomery has worked in artificial intelligence i.e computer simulations.

For instance he mentions social distancing ..it is obvious he does not have a clue as to what he is talking about, it is not his field. Social distancing relates to gases and thermodynamics.

He has also published work on Climate Change, none of his research has ever shown any interest nor knowledge of this subject. Again it is not his field.

One has to be very wary of these 'experts' just because he is in the medical field does not mean he knows everything there is to know on every illness/infection etc. I most certainly would not allow him to do brain or heart surgery for instance. Doctors can only specialise in one small area of medical knowledge because the human body is a very complex machine. Montgomery specialises in Blood pressures and the fluidity of cells, tissues and organism systems to ensure a healthy body.

[joan ofarc]

I'll take a professional over an amateur any day of the week.

[Hamble]

Dr. Montgomery, University College of London - where that other guy got all the Covid figures so drastically wrong, has one of the most wonderful resumes I have ever read but nothing to do with viruses. As with the guy who got all his figures wrong, Montgomery has worked in artificial intelligence i.e computer simulations.

For instance he mentions social distancing ..it is obvious he does not have a clue as to what he is talking about, it is not his field. Social distancing relates to gases and thermodynamics.

He has also published work on Climate Change, none of his research has ever shown any interest nor knowledge of this subject. Again it is not his field.

One has to be very wary of these 'experts' just because he is in the medical field does not mean he knows everything there is to know on every illness/infection etc. I most certainly would not allow him to do brain or heart surgery for instance. Doctors can only specialise in one small area of medical knowledge because the human body is a very complex machine. Montgomery specialises in Blood pressures and the fluidity of cells, tissues and organism systems to ensure a healthy body.

Well I was impressed after the first paragraph.

Hugh Edward Montgomery (born 20 October 1962) is an English professor of medicine and the director of the Centre for Human Health and Performance at University College London. He discovered that an allele of the gene with the DNA code for angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) influences physical fitness; this was the first discovery of a gene related to fitness.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugh_M...ry_(physician)

[said]

"Lockdown restrictions imposed in March were initially eased in England on 13 May, when people were allowed to spend more time outdoors.

On 15 May, the reproduction number - indicating how many people are infected, on average, by someone with the virus - was estimated to be between 0.7 and 1.

In March, the R number was estimated to be as high as 4."



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53414363

The information given was that there was supposed to be a massive spike during Mach when everyone was on a lock down.and well after the contagion period. The numbers would have dropped drastically after March because the virus is only effective from December to March. There will not be any cases now - no matter what the media claim. It would be impossible in the UK during the warmer months.

[said]

Well I was impressed after the first paragraph.

Hugh Edward Montgomery (born 20 October 1962) is an English professor of medicine and the director of the Centre for Human Health and Performance at University College London. He discovered that an allele of the gene with the DNA code for angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) influences physical fitness; this was the first discovery of a gene related to fitness.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugh_M...ry_(physician)

Trust me! I know what he has researched, and I know how the system works. His gene research was into a specific nation of people for which he won an award. Unless one is studying the genes of every nation in the World and comparing each nation to the numbers who contract which illness - it would have nothing to do with any corona virus. His studies related to the regulation of Blood Pressures combined with a study of the associated cells and tissues for optimum performance for activity. For which he again won an award for - but which had nothing to do with corona virus. You can have a number of professional engineers for instance, but there are a variety of engineers who would not understand the work of another. It is the same with Doctors. Why is it that for this article he refers to himself as a Doctor, when his title is correctly Professor? Because so many more people relate to Doctor as a medical person - which is erroneous because one can be a Doctor in a great many disciplines.

[seivad]

The information given was that there was supposed to be a massive spike during Mach when everyone was on a lock down.and well after the contagion period. The numbers would have dropped drastically after March because the virus is only effective from December to March. There will not be any cases now - no matter what the media claim. It would be impossible in the UK during the warmer months.

Impossible during the warmth of a British Summer? Meantime, in the real world, Brazil and India are currently the worst Covid hot spots.

[silver fox]

The information given was that there was supposed to be a massive spike during Mach when everyone was on a lock down.and well after the contagion period. The numbers would have dropped drastically after March because the virus is only effective from December to March. There will not be any cases now - no matter what the media claim. It would be impossible in the UK during the warmer months.

Here we go yet again, do you really think there is a COVID season like a flu season? of course we will all take note of the expertise of someone idiotic enough to try to clean a hot iron with a plastic spatula.

[local]

Much as it pains me to say we do have a respiratory disease "season"
from December to March.

It is not however as black and white as some would have it.

https://assets.publishing.service.go...n_COVID-19.pdf


Looking at other countries is not necessarily helpful as it's a combination of factors.

Thankfully the rather naive comparisons of the UK with other countries have subdued.

[Alikado]

"Lockdown restrictions imposed in March were initially eased in England on 13 May, when people were allowed to spend more time outdoors.

On 15 May, the reproduction number - indicating how many people are infected, on average, by someone with the virus - was estimated to be between 0.7 and 1.

In March, the R number was estimated to be as high as 4."



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53414363

That was speculation, I posted the Government published graph.

[Hamble]

Trust me! I know what he has researched, and I know how the system works. His gene research was into a specific nation of people for which he won an award. Unless one is studying the genes of every nation in the World and comparing each nation to the numbers who contract which illness - it would have nothing to do with any corona virus. His studies related to the regulation of Blood Pressures combined with a study of the associated cells and tissues for optimum performance for activity. For which he again won an award for - but which had nothing to do with corona virus. You can have a number of professional engineers for instance, but there are a variety of engineers who would not understand the work of another. It is the same with Doctors. Why is it that for this article he refers to himself as a Doctor, when his title is correctly Professor? Because so many more people relate to Doctor as a medical person - which is erroneous because one can be a Doctor in a great many disciplines.

It does in vaccine research in the study of gene altering antibody in the fight against a virus.

?
He obtained a 1st Class BSc degree in 1984 in neuropharmacology and cardiorespiratory physiology, before qualifying as a medical doctor in July 1987 from the Middlesex Hospital Medical School, University of London. He was awarded the prize as most outstanding student during this time.


Dr is a medical qualification.
Professor is an academic qualification.

[silver fox]

Much as it pains me to say we do have a respiratory disease "season"
from December to March.

It is not however as black and white as some would have it.

https://assets.publishing.service.go...n_COVID-19.pdf


Looking at other countries is not necessarily helpful as it's a combination of factors.

Thankfully the rather naive comparisons of the UK with other countries have subdued.

Agree we do have a respiratory season, however COVID has shown itself to be more than purely respiratory, if climate and temperature were a regulator, many countries would have little or no epidemic, sadly very few are COVID free.

The current death rate in Brazil and Mexico to name just two much warmer countries, is grim to say the least.

[seivad]

Much as it pains me to say we do have a respiratory disease "season"
from December to March.

It is not however as black and white as some would have it.

https://assets.publishing.service.go...n_COVID-19.pdf


Looking at other countries is not necessarily helpful as it's a combination of factors.

Thankfully the rather naive comparisons of the UK with other countries have subdued.

Without a doubt other factors influence a country's Covid outcome.

In Brazil, Bolsonaro dismissed the severity of Covid from day one. Limited resources were made available to fight the pandemic and provide adequate health care for those who contracted the disease. It was inevitable that their situation would turn out to be horrific.

Nevertheless, the occurrence of Covid cases in hot countries blows Said's theory out of the water.

I do believe that cases will be minimal by the time Summer comes in the UK, but that will be due to a number of factors: Your super fast/efficient vaccine roll out, a long lock down, the percentage of the population who adhered to the restrictions, along with distancing/masks/hygiene and getting the jab. All of those involved deserve a pat on the back. It's certainly no thanks to Covid deniers like Said.

[local]

The big and as yet unknown is why some get it and die and others don't even get ill.

Even for those dyed in the wool Boris/Conservative haters (as though he/they knew much anyway), the question needs answering as you can't attribute blame without knowing why people have died.

It's certainly not as clear-cut as some amateur virologists seem to think.

Why have some depressingly poor nations with poor healthcare done relatively well it's not about lockdowns as they live cheek by jowl.

Swedens death rate is not as high as predicted.

Why has China got such relatively low rates*

How is it some very elderly people get over it.


*Assuming their accurate.