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Originally Posted by said
If an election was to take place in the near future - both Labour and Conservative would lose hundreds of seats nationwide and people would be voting for Brexit parties or those having a Brexit majority of MP's. If there were no such party in the locality, then the least likely party would be voted for, as a protest against a self serving, dictatorial leadership.
I very much doubt it, Tories would be the main loser especially with BoJo or Jacob at the helm, Labour would be the main party but the big winners would be the Nationalist ones,UKIP would be out of sight having ceded to their playmates in the BNP.
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Originally Posted by Alikado
I very much doubt it, Tories would be the main loser especially with BoJo or Jacob at the helm, Labour would be the main party but the big winners would be the Nationalist ones,UKIP would be out of sight having ceded to their playmates in the BNP.
Labour do not stand a hope in hell's chance, it breeds contempt among the electorate.
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Originally Posted by said
Labour do not stand a hope in hell's chance, it breeds contempt among the electorate.
https://twitter.com/Survation/status...01738307702784
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Originally Posted by Desert Region
There are many individual polls and each present different figures. If the UK does not leave the EU by the date of the European elections - then this will energise the Brexit Party and could change the percentages considerably. At the present time, the Conservatives are likely to win a general election by a narrow margin - a change in leadership to favour a eurosceptic would increase its lead. Labour is unlikely to gain sufficient seats for leadership and would have to form a coalition with the unpopular SNP party. This is because Labour are financially supported by the Unions, who in turn, are financially dependent on the EU, hence the Labour MP's are mainly Remain supporters.
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Originally Posted by said
06/04/2019 09:09 PM
Labour do not stand a hope in hell's chance, it breeds contempt among the electorate.
Originally Posted by said
06/04/2019 10:15 PM
At the present time, the Conservatives are likely to win a general election by a narrow margin - a change in leadership to favour a eurosceptic would increase its lead. Labour is unlikely to gain sufficient seats for leadership and would have to form a coalition with the unpopular SNP party.
Gosh! In your estimation, Labour's electoral fortunes greatly increased in little over an hour, there.
What happened during that hour?
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Originally Posted by Desert Region
Gosh! In your estimation, Labour's electoral fortunes greatly increased in little over an hour, there.
What happened during that hour?
Protest votes abound at the moment.
Unless the Tory's deliver Brexit Labour voters will drift back to UKIP.
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Originally Posted by Hamble
Protest votes abound at the moment.
Unless the Tory's deliver Brexit Labour voters will drift back to UKIP.
Currently any of this is speculation, guesstimation, but must ask how does Tory failure damage Labour? UKIP have shown their true colours and will remain on the fringe, then of course we have Farage on another ego trip with the "Brexit Party", on the surface this is more likely to appeal to Tories with ERG inclinations.
There will undoubtedly be changes in any future election, some will likely switch allegiance, how many will simply not vote due to disillusion with the whole process? Neither you nor I know those answers, one worry for die hard Tories, there are reports of grass roots Tory supporters declining to help with canvassing for the upcoming local elections, simply because May has the audacity to negotiate with Corbyn.
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The latest by-election shows a swing to the Conservatives which is not the norm as the punters normally give the incumbent party a bit of a kicking and the Conservatives certainly deserve one.
Your average voter has a problem whoever they vote for, the principle of finality of vote is under siege and on life support.
Which losing voter on any issue in any election wouldn't make the claims
that we now know more (even when we don't really).
we didn't know what we were voting for.
that they were mislead by X and Y.
we want to see if anyone has changed their minds.
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Originally Posted by said
There are many individual polls and each present different figures.
There are. And the vast majority indicate that the electorate would now prefer to remain. According to Gideon's 'Standard', in most of 150 polls, there has been a major swing to staying in the EU.
Reuters.
If the UK does not leave the EU by the date of the European elections - then this will energise the Brexit Party and could change the percentages considerably.
The Brexit Party? A few UKIP leftovers? A party formed in 3 months ago, then almost immediately lost it's chairman and treasurer because of Islamophobic, anti-semitic and homophobic comments they had made? A party without a single MP? Ooh, it'll be terrifying when they get 'energised'.
At the present time, the Conservatives are likely to win a general election by a narrow margin
Highly debatable. There has never been a Tory government so incompetent. And desperate. You can usually tell how desperate by how many attacks there are in the right wing papers on Corbyn. They are really cranking those up. Yet invite him to Number 10. Doesn't really reflect well on them.
Labour is unlikely to gain sufficient seats for leadership and would have to form a coalition with the unpopular SNP party.
I think you'll find the SNP are extremely popular in Scotland. Quite immaterial how popular they are anywhere else. Though I'd vote for wee Jimmy Cranky given the choice. I'd say a Labour / SNP coalition would be most agreeable. They probably won't demand a billion quid for 10 votes. Nor are they associated with terrorists, make women's choices illegal or ban gay marriage as though it was the 1800s.
This is because Labour are financially supported by the Unions, who in turn, are financially dependent on the EU, hence the Labour MP's are mainly Remain supporters.
Completely wrong again. Labour boasts largest number of members of any party in western Europe. Labour's membership supports the party, not the unions.
Of course, they may have competition from an energised Brexit Party...
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Originally Posted by said
There are many individual polls and each present different figures.
How about that .
Anyone who has an interest in polling, and / or closely followed the last GE, will know why I focused exclusively on presenting a snapshot of recent Survation polling.
You might like to listen to Damian Lyons Lowe, here (when he's allowed to speak), and his comments on younger people turnout.
<yt-formatted-string force-default-style="" class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer">Pollster mocked by BBC for predicting Corbyn surge, hung parliament and DUP coalition</yt-formatted-string>
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Originally Posted by silver fox
Currently any of this is speculation, guesstimation, but must ask how does Tory failure damage Labour? UKIP have shown their true colours and will remain on the fringe, then of course we have Farage on another ego trip with the "Brexit Party", on the surface this is more likely to appeal to Tories with ERG inclinations.
There will undoubtedly be changes in any future election, some will likely switch allegiance, how many will simply not vote due to disillusion with the whole process? Neither you nor I know those answers, one worry for die hard Tories, there are reports of grass roots Tory supporters declining to help with canvassing for the upcoming local elections, simply because May has the audacity to negotiate with Corbyn.
Damage?
It is about Labour Brexiteers voting Tory for Brexit.
If the Tory's fail I doubt on that one issue they would vote for them again.
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Originally Posted by Hamble
Damage?
It is about Labour Brexiteers voting Tory for Brexit.
If the Tory's fail I doubt on that one issue they would vote for them again.
I would think by now you have realised that Remain/Leave is far from a right/left divide, which ever way you care to dress it up, the current farce is one entirely of Tory construction, from start to whatever eventual finish we get.
I already said that there would be dissatisfied voters from both the main parties, or do you somehow believe that Tories will vote Tory no matter what, with Labour voters switching over Brexit, dream on, it's difficult to assess which party is the more divided, even more difficult to assess just how the electorate will vote, remember the fringe parties such as UKIP, BNP, Farage's new ego trip, The Brexit Party are all very much of the right wing, utterly repulsive to most Labour voters, but attractive to plenty of potential Tory voters.
Your idea that Labour voters will switch to Tory over Brexit is naive to say the least, to date the Tories have failed to deliver anything acceptable to either side of the divide, if anything that should mean Tory voters abandoning "those born to rule" in droves, but hey ho speculation and wishful thinking will not determine anything and I for one would not like to guess which way a General Election would go, know what I would like to see, but at this stage means very little.
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Originally Posted by silver fox
I would think by now you have realised that Remain/Leave is far from a right/left divide, which ever way you care to dress it up, the current farce is one entirely of Tory construction, from start to whatever eventual finish we get.
I already said that there would be dissatisfied voters from both the main parties, or do you somehow believe that Tories will vote Tory no matter what, with Labour voters switching over Brexit, dream on, it's difficult to assess which party is the more divided, even more difficult to assess just how the electorate will vote, remember the fringe parties such as UKIP, BNP, Farage's new ego trip, The Brexit Party are all very much of the right wing, utterly repulsive to most Labour voters, but attractive to plenty of potential Tory voters.
Your idea that Labour voters will switch to Tory over Brexit is naive to say the least, to date the Tories have failed to deliver anything acceptable to either side of the divide, if anything that should mean Tory voters abandoning "those born to rule" in droves, but hey ho speculation and wishful thinking will not determine anything and I for one would not like to guess which way a General Election would go, know what I would like to see, but at this stage means very little.
My comment on Labour voters supporting Tory's for Brexit was historical.
Been done and gone old bean.
Yes I do hope there will be an elite revolution to save Britain from the binge and starve consequence of a Labour Government.
The only people who get richer off the backs of a Labour Gov are the Socialist elite and migrant/immigrant peoples who come to this Country with nothing and work their bones off to take advantage of our education system/equality laws/litigation encouragement to improve their lives.
The help resources and money needs to go to those who have been bypassed in previous generations by the education system and help/advantage when the system was not as fair with much less competition.
Stopping the flow of the have nothing at alls will concentrate resources on the have nothings already here.
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Originally Posted by silver fox
Both the two major parties have trouble in their ranks, for instance I wouldn't trust the likes of Johnson, Gove, Grayling, Mogg etc, to take care of my cat, most certainly not the country and the people.
... I mean, you'd think that with a name like Mogg ...
"May have been the losing side. Still not convinced it was the wrong one." - Firefly (TV Series)
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Originally Posted by Hamble
The help resources and money needs to go to those who have been bypassed in previous generations by the education system and help/advantage when the system was not as fair with much less competition.
Stopping the flow of the have nothing at alls will concentrate resources on the have nothings already here.
Because a Tory government will spend any extra money on poor people? Come on, they are systematically killing off the 'have nothings'.
https://metro.co.uk/2018/12/05/auste...-help-8207985/
https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/news/aus...o-new-research
This government is incompetent, clueless and has done nothing whatsoever to improve the lives of poor people. Quite the opposite. Their most recent tax cuts will only benefit the wealthy, in real terms. This is quite possibly the worst government in history, from every aspect. Whether it is cuts to the police, Universal Credit, Brexit, housing, the NHS, massaging employment figures, whatever. There is no way they have done a single positive thing for this country.
Seriously, name one policy that has helped the poor of this country.
And immigrants from the EEA generally contribute to the government coffers, rather than drain them.
It's non EEA immigrants that take from the system. There will be plenty of those after Brexit, because you know that any deals done with non-EEA areas will include movement to the UK.
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