South African variant, one case in Southport.

[Toodles McGinty]

Please relay to them that there are 17 new variants of the Covid which have been discovered, and that a variant is merely a change. The actual virus has not been isolated as yet, most of the observations made are incomplete since there is insufficient viral material to use for testing.

There are about 4000 variants.

Of course it's been isolated. Full fact.

[Toodles McGinty]

A test that picks up less than half cases is next to useless.

I imagine it's useful for those it picks up. But whether or not it gives a true picture of the number of positives in a particular area is another thing altogether.

[Alikado]

Simply not correct.

Proof please, I've cited the BMA, do you have better or is it your usual tactic of disparaging everybody elses comments / posts?

[seivad]

The PCR tests are not accurate as has been reported by the WHO themselves. The reason being that the assay used was taken as a fraction of the genome and not based on the whole genome. PCR testing could only cope with 12kb of genome while the SARS2 requires 26.2 - 31,7 kb. It is impossible to achieve an accurate assay with only a fraction of the genome because there are so many virus microbes contained in it making it highly variable over the whole sequence. Also, there has been insufficient viral genome for comparisons. The PCR tests are only suitable for samples of low viral genetic material. The PCR method introduces amplification errors along the sequence.

I was not talking about the accuracy of PCR tests, or suggesting that PCR tests are a standalone means of identifying new variants. I was explaining how health authorities spot new variants circulating in the community.

Health authorities operate surveillance programmes which mandate labs to forward a stated number of Covid positive PCR tests for genome sequencing. The PCR tests must contain a high level of viral RNA, so any tests over a stated cycle threshold value will not be accepted. That eliminates the possibility of the background noise that you're so concerned about.

PCR tests can identify the UK variant by the missing S genome. However this is just a flag and the lab must forward the test for genome sequencing before it can be confirmed.

Variations to viruses can be beneficial to the virus or highly detrimental in that they can destroy the virus. It is not known if the new variant has been present in the UK since August last. What is known is that a small part of the available information is passed to a virus consortium, placed on a computer which then forecasts a pattern of behaviour. ICOG UK. Who add a disclaimer to their report:

"Limitations1. This report is for information only. The clinical and public health importance of any single mutation,or combination of mutations cannot be determined from sequence data alone."

So don't panic - wait for actual confirmation.

Who's panicking? I've already stated (twice) that the variant must be confirmed by sequencing.

Nice of you to include the disclaimer. No doubt that was your way of trying to dismiss their work as unimportant. Had you included the whole disclaimer segment, the picture would be very different. Their stellar work provides the building block for further studies.

2. 'Putative evidence for the importance of any single mutation, or combination of mutations can be derived from computational biology and further evaluated by laboratory experiments. Genomic and laboratory evidence then need to be combined with clinical datasets that are designed to allow detection of increased transmissibility, change in disease severity, drug resistance or altered vaccine efficacy. For this reason, surveillance and risk assessment of mutations and variants is a multi-agency process involving UK Public Health Agencies who have access to detailed information on patients and populations, and other groups including NERVTAG (New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group)'

[said]

I was not talking about the accuracy of PCR tests, or suggesting that PCR tests are a standalone means of identifying new variants. I was explaining how health authorities spot new variants circulating in the community.

Health authorities operate surveillance programmes which mandate labs to forward a stated number of Covid positive PCR tests for genome sequencing. The PCR tests must contain a high level of viral RNA, so any tests over a stated cycle threshold value will not be accepted. That eliminates the possibility of the background noise that you're so concerned about.

PCR tests can identify the UK variant by the missing S genome. However this is just a flag and the lab must forward the test for genome sequencing before it can be confirmed.


Who's panicking? I've already stated (twice) that the variant must be confirmed by sequencing.

Nice of you to include the disclaimer. No doubt that was your way of trying to dismiss their work as unimportant. Had you included the whole disclaimer segment, the picture would be very different. Their stellar work provides the building block for further studies.

2. 'Putative evidence for the importance of any single mutation, or combination of mutations can be derived from computational biology and further evaluated by laboratory experiments. Genomic and laboratory evidence then need to be combined with clinical datasets that are designed to allow detection of increased transmissibility, change in disease severity, drug resistance or altered vaccine efficacy. For this reason, surveillance and risk assessment of mutations and variants is a multi-agency process involving UK Public Health Agencies who have access to detailed information on patients and populations, and other groups including NERVTAG (New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group)'

There is no 'noise' in RNA sequences, but if only a very small sample is taken for an assay, it could prove to be unreliable unless comparisons are made to the whole sequence.

As I think I have pointed out previously, the PCR tests show a number of dead viral shells. The human body has a number of dead viral cells at any time for there are millions of viruses in our bodies. The RNA genome is the same for every life/pseudo-life form. At this particular time insufficient information is known about the 'S' protein, but even then, I am not sufficiently knowledgeable to know how, or if, the 'S' protein RNA can be differentiated from the 'H' RNA or the 'N' RNA since they each have A U G C + a phosphate in their chains. This can only emerge as a mutation once it has replicated numerous times.

You must appreciate the size of a whole virus and then consider the size of its sub-parts. There are 50,000 viruses that will sit on a pin head. Each virus is 10 ^-31 m in size, that is 1, with 31 zeros before it metres, which needs to be photographed.

All viruses have several mutations during an outbreak, that is nothing unusual. The doubt that I expressed is that this same mutation for the South African Strain has been found in Minks, in Denmark, I believe back in October, since when they have been culling them in their millions.

Your last paragraph explains far more 'computational biology'. Much of the outbreak and the variations have been entered as data into a computer programme to give some 'estimate' of a forecast of the outcome.

The good new is that so far the mutations have proved to be less severe than the original virus:

"Now, scientists who have reviewed the data say the mutations themselves aren’t particularly concerning because there is little evidence that they allow the virus to spread more easily among people, make it more deadly or will jeopardize therapeutics and vaccines. “The mink-associated mutations we know of are not associated with rapid spread, nor with any changes in morbidity and mortality,” says Astrid Iversen, a virologist at the University of Oxford, UK."

Anyway, unless the political situation changes again, we should be clear by the end of March, after which there will be a gradual return to normal.

[seivad]

The good new is that so far the mutations have proved to be less severe than the original virus:

"Now, scientists who have reviewed the data say the mutations themselves aren’t particularly concerning because there is little evidence that they allow the virus to spread more easily among people, make it more deadly or will jeopardize therapeutics and vaccines. “The mink-associated mutations we know of are not associated with rapid spread, nor with any changes in morbidity and mortality,” says Astrid Iversen, a virologist at the University of Oxford, UK."

The Spanish and the UK variants are not associated with minks. Both variants are much more transmissible than anything we've seen before.

I think AstraZeneca has claimed their vaccine will still provide adequate protection against the variants. I believe that Pfizer and Moderna are also tweaking their vaccines to improve efficacy. There are a few other vaccines finishing up their trials, but I've no idea what their claims are.

[said]

The Spanish and the UK variants are not associated with minks. Both variants are much more transmissible than anything we've seen before.

I think AstraZeneca has claimed their vaccine will still provide adequate protection against the variants. I believe that Pfizer and Moderna are also tweaking their vaccines to improve efficacy. There are a few other vaccines finishing up their trials, but I've no idea what their claims are.

BMJ

Computer modelling suggests that it is 70 per cent more transmissible than other Sars-Cov-2 strains circulating in the UK and raises the R value — the average number of people to whom someone with Covid-19 passes the infection — by 0.4, which makes the pandemic far harder to control without stringent lockdown measures.

All this should end around March this year.

[local]

Amazing about-turn doesn't seem that long ago it was called an overblown flu epidemic.................by some !!

[Toodles McGinty]

All this should end around March this year.

Right. Something to look forward to I suppose. All traces of Covid gone in 3 weeks.

While the NHS has done an incredible job with the vaccines so far, I doubt they'll vaccinate everyone in 3 weeks time. Or even give the first vaccines out, for that matter.

Unless the vast majority are vaccinated, worldwide, this isn't going away anytime soon. My biggest worry is that it will mutate beyond the scope of the vaccine before the minimum amount receive it to achieve suppression of the virus.

[SteveandLois]

My Wife has an appointment later today at the Hoghton St medical centre for the covid vaccine,and have been told to ask them IF they have a spare dode for myself ? As I am a carer 24/7 for my wife who is slowly recovering from her stem cell procedure last September.

[local]

If we look back to last summer it was looking good then the "Flu Season" arrived.

The Southern Hemisphere is in this position now but if we don't all get vaccinated it will hit us again.

[The PNP]

My Wife has an appointment later today at the Hoghton St medical centre for the covid vaccine,and have been told to ask them IF they have a spare dode for myself ?

Mate, I wouldn't be in a hurry for one of them...Last time I looked, 'Dode' was wiped out in 1349 by the black death!

[Alikado]

I've seen a report elsewhere that the testing is to be extended into parts of Cambridge & Dukes Wards as another case has been detected through random checks of other tests.

https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news...added-19784744

[said]

Amazing about-turn doesn't seem that long ago it was called an overblown flu epidemic.................by some !!

I have not changed my mind either! By examining the structure of this virus and comparing it to the influenza, there is exactly the same structure in both. Influenza viruses of which there are four types, A,B,C and D, fall under the classification of Orthomyxoviridae. Covid 19 appears to be identical to the influenza group A. It looks the same as influenza virus, acts the same, exits the host cell the same, creates the same symptoms, etc., I can go into far more scientific detail if you are interested.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/types.htm

You can also read this - but do so objectively:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/flu-vs-covid19.htm

The Spanish flu pandemic was the largest, but not the only large recent influenza pandemic. Two decades before the Spanish flu the Russian flu pandemic (1889-1894) is believed to have killed 1 million people. Estimates for the death toll of the “Asian Flu” (1957-1958) vary between 1.5 and 4 million.4 Mar 2020



It is impossible for the virus C19 to destroy influenza viruses because they do not have host cells. So although every single year for the past hundred years we have had some form of influenza - we have had none/very few (depending on what records you read) this year.

You can give a rose any other name - but it is still a rose.

By the way, during ANY outbreak of influenza, there can be any number of variants. In the last outbreak, there were found to be seventeen variants. The transmission rates of this Covid which have been published have been synthesised on a computer. Such forecasting is not accurate, and is more than likely to be way off scale.

Number of Deaths in the World every year, 55 million people. (Our World in Data)

Also counted among the deaths are those people who tested positive forty days prior to death. So if a parachutist had tested positive thirty days before he jumped out of a plane and the 'chute failed to open - it would be recorded as a covid death?? (unverified)

We are told that this virus is likely to die off by March. The normal annual influenza period is Dec - March.

Why? For that you will need to read up on the USA economy and World recession.

[local]

But Prof your first link is dated November 2019 the NEW corona virus was discovered in December 2019.

Is this why your getting mixed up ?

From the same source

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/flu-vs-covid19.htm

If you read this you can catch up with the differences.