Good or Bad Deal

[The PNP]

In what way is the effect of Covid on the economy diminishing now?

Less people are catching Covid, that's what an R number of less that 1 means. Therefore absenteeism due Covid reduces - and greater productivity results.

Unless a tighter lockdown is introduced (unlikely) or the R number rises, Covid will play no part in any economic contraction this quarter. So when we see levels of economic activity fall in this quarter, despite brexiters fervent wish for a Brexit 'scapegoat', economic failure can no longer be attributed to Covid.

[millsey]

The shellfish problem is because we left, within the EU it doesn't have to be sanitized but anything imported into the EU does and was before we left and swopped from one regime to the other.
Last week there was a cheese company on TV, it exports cheese gifts and every single gift box needs separate docs, if it was a lorry load of cheese it would require 1 set of the docs, the advice he was given by the Government was to set up in the EU and box it up there.

So the shellfish producers would / could not have been aware of this before they were sending the loads down to Dover in lorries?

Re cheese gifts, this is the same argument as the people buying goods from EU member countries then complaining about their parcels being subject to additional import duties .. society is not responsible for individual's ignorance. Again what proportion of the economy is this? We could always find corner cases who have lost out, any change is not without rebalance, but those individual company owners should have done their own due diligence on the possible impact, and ran their business accordingly.

What really gets me currently is the complete silence around all the new business investments, is spite of and often because of Brexit - Nissan, Britishvolt, WFEL, Knorr-Bremse, BMW, and hundreds more investing in UK manufacturing, you won't hear about these on your favourite news channel because they are all pushing anti-UK, anti-Government, woke agendas.

The UK will thrive post Brexit and Covid, some people just don't like that because it exposes their wish for the UK to do badly post-Brexit.

[millsey]

Less people are catching Covid, that's what an R number of less that 1 means. Therefore absenteeism due Covid reduces - and greater productivity results.

Unless a tighter lockdown is introduced (unlikely) or the R number rises, Covid will play no part in any economic contraction this quarter. So when we see levels of economic activity fall in this quarter, despite brexiters fervent wish for a Brexit 'scapegoat', economic failure can no longer be attributed to Covid.

You are talking rubbish! Many businesses are still running a fraction of their norm, or closed completely, nothing has changed in terms of lockdown since the end of December, so why would the economy be so much better now? Absenteeism is not the problem with Covid, given that many people have no symptoms or a minor illness - the economy has been shut down to prevent the spread of a new disease which kills older and vulnerable people. The working population has not been vaccinated yet - because they are much less at risk of dying!

[The PNP]

You are talking rubbish! Many businesses are still running a fraction of their norm, or closed completely, nothing has changed in terms of lockdown since the end of December

That is precisely my point. I.e. that the economy has absorbed all that, and is now at this new lower level.....It's where we go from here, with Covids previous damage factored in, that is the big worry. Brexits negative impact this quarter (and beyond) can no longer hide behind Covid.

Btw, I don't disagree that Covid has had a negative effect on the UK economy, but so has Brexit. To take but one example (and there are many!), hundreds and hundreds of financial service jobs have transferred to mainland Europe. And this jobloss was under way, well before Covid came along.

[millsey]

That is precisely my point. I.e. that the economy has absorbed all that, and is now at this new lower level.....It's where we go from here, with Covids previous damage factored in, that is the big worry. Brexits negative impact this quarter (and beyond) can no longer hide behind Covid.

Btw, I don't disagree that Covid has had a negative effect on the UK economy, but so has Brexit. To take but one example (and there are many!), hundreds and hundreds of financial service jobs have transferred to mainland Europe. And this jobloss was under way, well before Covid came along.

So are you going to compare this year's "quarter one" (calendar) with last year's "quarter one" and then claim the deficit is cause by Brexit? We entered lockdown in 16th March 2020 and so there were six weeks of economic impact in your "quarter one" last year!

Don't get me started on financial service jobs! https://www.ft.com/content/d6dd6f88-...d-dc01b29dcb6f EU protectionism pure and simple. Not a factor of Brexit but a factor of the EU trying their hardest to punish the UK for restoring its independence from the political cabal.

[millsey]

So are you going to compare this year's "quarter one" (calendar) with last year's "quarter one" and then claim the deficit is cause by Brexit? We entered lockdown in 16th March 2020 and so there were six weeks of economic impact in your "quarter one" last year!

Don't get me started on financial service jobs! https://www.ft.com/content/d6dd6f88-...d-dc01b29dcb6f EU protectionism pure and simple. Not a factor of Brexit but a factor of the EU trying their hardest to punish the UK for restoring its independence from the political cabal.

Apologies, my maths is bad on this, but not in your favour.. We entered ACTUAL lock down mandated by the PM on 23rd March. Quarter one ends on 31st March. So Last year, there was ONE WEEK of lockdown in "Quarter one".

[The PNP]

A) So are you going to compare this year's "quarter one" (calendar) with last year's "quarter one" and then claim the deficit is cause by Brexit? We entered lockdown in 16th March 2020 and so there were six weeks of economic impact in your "quarter one" last year!

B) Don't get me started on financial service jobs! https://www.ft.com/content/d6dd6f88-...d-dc01b29dcb6f EU protectionism pure and simple. Not a factor of Brexit but a factor of the EU trying their hardest to punish the UK ] for restoring its independence from the political cabal.

A) No, I'll let you off with that.....I am going to compare our economy at the end of this quarter, to where we were at the start of this quarter. And with the 'real' effects of Brexit feeding in, I am not hopeful we'll even be able to tread water economically as a result!

B) Not a factor of Brexit? You're joking of course! As member of the EU, the UK made a most attractive base for many companies, financial and otherwise. Outside the EU, we've lost that fantastic advantage....It's no wonder that even our Govt is advising UK businesses, to open offices and works inside the EU, if they want to survive.

[millsey]

A) No, of course not.....I am going to compare our economy at the end of this quarter, to where we were at the start of this quarter. And with the 'real' effects of Brexit feeding in, I am not hopeful we'll even be able to tread water economically as a result!

B) Not a factor of Brexit? You're joking of course! As member of the EU, the UK made a most attractive base for many companies, financial and otherwise. Outside the EU, we've lost that fantastic advantage....It's no wonder that even our Govt is advising UK businesses, to open offices and works inside the EU, if they want to survive.

Responding to A> good luck with that!
Responding to B> There is obviously a distinction between the benefit of being inside the EU, and the EU's need to make exiting the EU look like a bad idea! A EU exit punishment by any words you choose, not the end of a benefit of being a member.

Response request for C> how do you respond to the hundreds of positive contracts and investments which have been announced post Brexit?
Response request for D> do you accept that some businesses which are complaining about implementation appear to not have made any effort towards implementation?

Response request for E> do you accept that your assertion that the economy is already recovering, despite the same lockdown criteria since the end of December, is false?

Z> you gasp a lot.

[local]

Charging a cheese exporter so much is so detrimental to the EU it is almost certain that common sense will prevail.
The same with the sea food problems.

The EU will need our co-operation as they clearly wouldn't want us to impose such ludicrous barriers on their exports to us.

I hope we wouldn't be so pathetic and if we were I would roundly condemn our government it's time the grownups sorted these things out.

[The PNP]

A) Charging a cheese exporter so much is so detrimental to the EU it is almost certain that common sense will prevail.
The same with the sea food problems.

B) The EU will need our co-operation as they clearly wouldn't want us to impose such ludicrous barriers on their exports to us.

I hope we wouldn't be so pathetic and if we were I would roundly condemn our government it's time the grownups sorted these things out.

A) Nah, with UK as competitor rather than partner, the EU will happily accept a shift of trade balance in their favour.

B) Economically damaging tit for tat stuff like that, is precisely what our membership avoided.

[millsey]

You're not getting away with that, good grief one of the big rallying cries during negotiations, in fact a major sticking point, was British waters and "British" fish, now when the reality sinks in that we can't move them quickly enough to sell them, suddenly a minor importance.

The paperwork required is the same for a truck load of single product as it is for an individual package, no amount of preparation can get ready for that, the average cost for certification paper work is quoted at £150, not a problem with a truck load of single product, however that is the same cost for an individual package, which may not even have a value of £150.

That's why groupage hauliers are reluctant to handle mixed loads, when every consignment needs it's own certification, so yes there is a cost.

All EU countries under normal conditions comply with EU standards, goods from outside the EU have to show they comply, unfortunately with fresh goods all too often that means inspection, sometimes testing is required, that's were the delay comes in.

These are the very things Remainers warned of, but of course we knew nothing

WHERE in reality does filling in a form outlining the contents of a shipment, large or small, cost a company £150? Just point me to any actual evidence of that! I heard that on twitter, as you probably did, but I don't accept it as true.

Regards fishing, there was a massive noise about fishing rights during the negotiation, remainers cited the successful negotiation of a five year transition (entirely sensible) as trivial and a small factor in the economy.

Now that the EU decided to play politics, fishing rights is claimed to be is suddenly a very important factor in our economy. But that is not the current headlines - existing businesses in Scotland who were already catching and selling shellfish to EU countries are being screwed by the EU for political reasons, and those who can still export (driving from Scotland to Dover!) are complaining that they have to fill in export paperwork, without which they are not allowed to move their goods.

Driving those fresh goods from Scotland to Dover is still faster than driving them to Newcastle and putting them on a ferry. So ge the export forms done! That is the price of doing business with a political union whose political aim is to make leaving them look like a very bad idea.

We are the UK and we are going to thrive without EU requirements to control our laws, borders and eventually armies and taxes! We do have a TRADE deal with the EU, with export forms to fill in, and now with 67 other countries either for continuity trade deals or for new opportunities.

The EU is toast!

[The PNP]

Responding to A> good luck with that!
Responding to B> There is obviously a distinction between the benefit of being inside the EU, and the EU's need to make exiting the EU look like a bad idea! A EU exit punishment by any words you choose, not the end of a benefit of being a member.

Response request for C> how do you respond to the hundreds of positive contracts and investments which have been announced post Brexit?
Response request for D> do you accept that some businesses which are complaining about implementation appear to not have made any effort towards implementation?

Response request for E> do you accept that your assertion that the economy is already recovering, despite the same lockdown criteria since the end of December, is false?

Z> you gasp a lot.

A) Thanks!

B) The EU's rules for imports of non-EU goods, were the same before we left - they were well known....Unless you can show they've clamped down, by making up new tougher rules to apply to us, I don't see any 'punishment'.

C) Any new contracts made, e.g. with countries around the world since Brexit, in no way make up for losses already experienced and those coming down the line due to Brexit.

D) There will be a few. But by and large, there's not much most can do about it, except to suck Brexit up and accept losing customers in the EU. For many, the extra paperwork, delays and costs simply aren't worth it.

E) ??? I didn't say the economy was recovering.

Z) Only when I pedal uphill!

[millsey]

A) Thanks!

B) The EU's rules for imports of non-EU goods, were the same before we left - they were well known....Unless you can show they've clamped down, by making up new tougher rules to apply to us, I don't see any 'punishment'.

C) Any new contracts made, e.g. with countries around the world since Brexit, in no way make up for losses already experienced and those coming down the line due to Brexit.

D) There will be a few. But by and large, there's not much most can do about it, except to suck Brexit up and accept losing customers in the EU. For many, the extra paperwork, delays and costs simply aren't worth it.

E) ??? I didn't say the economy was recovering.

Z) Only when I pedal uphill!

I have made a terrible error to argue with an idiot.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/ar...-not-temporary

New deals, plus existing confirmed EU trade deals (no BLIZZARD! of paperwork), will be much larger than only existing trade deals! One of the key constraints of being an EU member is that the member cannot make trade deals with other countries! Thanks to Liz Truss for signing 67 new and continuity deals in the last year.

Opportunities lost for trade with the EU will be replaced threefold with opportunities gained with the rest of the world.

I'm sorry for you if you think that the EU is Europe, and that all is rosy in the EU. Neither are true.

[The PNP]

A)I have made a terrible error to argue with an idiot.

B) New deals, plus existing confirmed EU trade deals (no BLIZZARD! of paperwork), will be much larger than only existing trade deals! One of the key constraints of being an EU member is that the member cannot make trade deals with other countries! Thanks to Liz Truss for signing 67 new and continuity deals in the last year.

C) Opportunities lost for trade with the EU will be replaced threefold with opportunities gained with the rest of the world.

D) I'm sorry for you if you think that the EU is Europe, and that all is rosy in the EU. Neither are true.

A) I could say I was beginning to come to the same conclusion. But I believe you have simply been taken in, by reading too much dodgy Brexit 'bull' in the press.

B) It's not the number of countries that matters, but the value in £££'s that trade represents.

C) Stranger things have happened - I'll believe it when I see it.

D) Last time I looked, the 'E' in EU stood for European. :rolleyes

Btw, as you've probably gathered, I like Europe, always have done since the first time I went there. Had many positive experiences of Europe and of the EU. Voted to join in the first place, voted to remain, and believe any country is better off in than out.

[millsey]

You have never voted to join the EU, as that was never offered to the UK in a referendum. You voted to join the European Economic Community, which does not even resemble the EU in any functional way.